According to Freedom House, up to 40% of elections are marred by some degree of violence. The Electoral Vulnerability Index (EVI) identifies elections that may face elevated risks of violence, political instability or institutional stress.
Kofi Annan recognised that elections can be powerful catalysts for political change. While they offer opportunities for democratic progress, they can also become flashpoints for tension and violence. This understanding continues to shape the Kofi Annan Foundation’s work on electoral integrity and violence prevention.
“At a time of widespread funding cuts, organisations working to prevent election violence need to prioritise”, stressed Anu Juvonen, President of the European Partnership for Democracy. “The Kofi Annan Foundation’s Electoral Vulnerability Index provides an invaluable scientific tool to help identify the elections most at risk over the horizon and should become a reference.”
To complement the recently released 2026-2027 Electoral Vulnerability Index, the Kofi Annan Foundation has prepared detailed analyses of selected elections facing varying levels of risk and vulnerability. These analyses combine EVI risk data with qualitative assessment of the political context, electoral administration, conflict dynamics and opportunities for prevention.
Selected Country Analyses (2026-2027)
| Rank | Country | EVI Risk Index | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicaragua | 88.3 | Nicaragua Country Analysis (PDF) |
| 2 | Republic of the Congo | 87.3 | Republic of the Congo Country Analysis (PDF) |
| 3 | Burundi | 84.6 | Burundi Country Analysis (PDF) |
| 4 | Somalia | 70.3 | Somalia Country Analysis (PDF) |
| 5 | Nigeria | 52.6 | Nigeria Country Analysis (PDF) |
| 6 | Serbia | 48.8 | Serbia Country Analysis (PDF) |
| 7 | Kenya | 45.4 | Kenya Country Analysis (PDF) |
| 8 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 43.3 | Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Analysis (PDF) |
| 9 | Bulgaria | 9.6 | Bulgaria Country Analysis (PDF) |
| 10 | Czechia | 1.6 | Czechia Country Analysis (PDF) |
These reports should be read as early warning tools rather than predictions of violence. Their purpose is to help policymakers, election management bodies, civil society organisations and international partners identify risks early and strengthen efforts to prevent electoral tensions from escalating.
Note: The selected country analyses are ranked by their EVI Risk Index score and do not reflect the ranking of all elections included in the full 2026–2027 Electoral Vulnerability Index.
Main photo: Nigerian security operatives during a military operation, ahead of the Governorship election, in Benin City, Edo, Nigeria, on September 17, 2020.
